By the Numbers: How is Kate doing, really?
The princess's sudden no-show at Royal Ascot raises questions about her return to royal duty. I've got the data.
Kate, Princess of Wales definitely caught everyone off guard when she suddenly pulled out of appearing at Royal Ascot a mere 20 minutes after her appearance had been announced.
Kensington Palace said that she was disappointed not to attend but had to find the right balance as she continued her recovery from cancer and returns to public engagements. As the Princess of Wales explained on September 9, 2024 when she revealed the end of her chemotherapy treatment: “Doing what I can to stay cancer free is now my focus. Although I have finished chemotherapy, my path to healing and full recovery is long and I must continue to take each day as it comes. I am however looking forward to being back at work and undertaking a few more public engagements in the coming months when I can.”
Was this a communications error — that her attendance hadn’t been confirmed but instead had been assumed — or a last minute decision by the Princess of Wales not to attend Royal Ascot? It was a hot day to spend a lot of time outside in the blazing sun, especially for a woman who knew she would be the focus of cameras and race enthusiasts. The fact that her parents and many of her closest friends were with Prince William at the racetrack that day signals that the reason for the change wasn’t one that caused alarm among her tight circle of family and friends.
“When is Kate going to be back?” is what people are asking of Daily Mirror royal editor Russell Myers, according his commentary in the latest episode of the Pod Save The King podcast.
“Most people who undergo cancer treatment will have responsibilities, of family or a job or getting back to a normal life far quicker than the Princess of Wales,” Myers says. He didn’t mean that to be a criticism, he emphasized, but a recognition of the reality that her life as a public figure is different from that of the rest of us.
To be frank: The Princess of Wales has the choice to go slower than others as she recovers from last year’s surgery and months of preventative chemotherapy and is taking advantage of that freedom. It’s a option that many who have had to deal with the after effects of surgery and/or cancer would seize in a millisecond rather than return to work when their boss or health insurance insists, rather than when they feel they’re ready.
Anyone who has dealt with health issues similar to Kate’s can explain how debilitating such treatments can be, and how long it takes after completing chemo to feel any semblance of normality. There’s really no such thing as a linear path of recovery after cancer. That first year can be a roller coaster — feeling better one day, then much worse the next. Some recover stronger and faster than others, yet still never make it back to the way things were before. Others really struggle with short- and long-term health issues as a result of those harsh cancer treatments.
BY THE MONTH
As it’s now more than nine months since Kate announced she’d finished her chemo (and five months since she revealed she was in remission), it’s worth seeing how she’s doing, from a royal work perspective. I pulled monthly data, starting at the beginning of 2024, when her health issues were first made public, and going forward to this week. The upward trend line is clear, even while still in the middle of June. One day at Royal Ascot aside, the Princess of Wales is definitely doing more.
Ironically, even if she’d attended Royal Ascot, her appearance at the racetrack wouldn’t count toward her annual work tally in my data as only the King and Queen are mentioned in the Court Circular.
At the same time, those of us who analyze that record of official engagements know that the Princess hadn’t attended other notable engagements in recent days, which she would likely have attended, had things been different.
On June 10, she visited the V&A East Storehouse.
On June 13, the eve of Trooping the Colour, Kate did not attend the annual senior colonels’ conference presided over by Princess Anne, colonel of the Blues and Royals. Also in attendance were Queen Camilla (Grenadier Guards), Prince William (Welsh Guards), and Prince Edward (Scots Guards).
The Court Circular noted, “The Princess of Wales, Colonel, Irish Guards, was represented by Major General Christopher Ghika (Regimental Lieutenant Colonel, Irish Guards).”
On June 14, she attended Trooping the Colour in her role as colonel of the Irish Guards.
On June 16, she didn’t attend the lunch that King Charles and Queen Camilla held for companions of the Order of the Garter at Windsor Castle, thus again not appearing in the Court Circular (I include her in my data for Garter Day as she went to the other half of that day’s event — the service at St. George’s Chapel).
On June 18, she suddenly backed out of attending Ascot. It would have been her fourth public appearance in eight days.
BY THE YEAR
Look at the annual data (including incomplete 2025 data), and one’s first impression may be “Wow, she’s not doing much” yet that’s misleading. For one, we’re not even half-way through 2025. For another, she’s recovering from a major health issue.
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